Events | 2010.02.16
By 2020, 80% of men will be overweight, study shows
Adult obesity predictions are \'not optimistic\', according to Oxford University professor
Eight out of 10 men and almost seven in 10 women will be overweight or obese by 2020, according to a study published today.
While data suggests childhood obesity may be levelling off, the picture for adults is "less optimistic".
Not only will people be fatter but the incidence of diabetes, stroke and heart disease will dramatically increase, the report added.
Led by Professor Klim McPherson from Oxford University, who is also chair of the National Heart Forum, the study uses figures from 1993 to 2007 to predict future levels of obesity in England.
It said: "Unlike the recent report on child obesity, which showed some indications of a plateauing or at least a significant reduction in the rate of obesity, the future projections for adults are less optimistic."
Some 41% of men aged 20 to 65 will be obese by 2020 and a further 40% will be overweight, the new predictions show.
Meanwhile, 36% of women will be obese and 32% will be overweight.
Among those aged 40 to 65, 44% of men and 38% of women will be obese while 40% of men and 32% of women will be overweight.
Obesity shows no sign of decreasing among adults and the incidence of associated illnesses – such as heart disease – will rise, said the report.
By 2050, there will be a 23% rise in the prevalence of obesity-related stroke, a 34% rise in obesity-related high blood pressure, a 44% rise in obesity-related coronary heart disease and a 98% rise in obesity-related diabetes.
Prof McPherson said: "These trends demonstrate that the cautiously optimistic picture we presented in November 2009 for a levelling off of future obesity rates among children is not mirrored in adults.
"There are already more men who are obese than who are of a healthy weight and, by the end of the decade, obese men and women could outnumber those who are overweight.
"We are being overwhelmed by the effects of today\'s \'obesogenic\' environment, with its abundance of energy-dense food and sedentary lifestyles."
Joe Korner, director of communications at The Stroke Association, said: "Obese people are more likely to suffer a stroke, which can leave people with paralysis and communication problems.
"But you don\'t have to become a statistic; you can do something about it.
"By eating more healthy foods and taking regular exercise you can help reduce your risk of stroke."
The report comes as the government launches a new campaign to urge adults to lose weight and get healthy.
The Swap it Don\'t Stop campaign says people do not have to give up all the things they love.
It suggests swapping watching a favourite sport on television for taking part, increasing fibre intake by choosing brown rice over white, or swapping bigger plates for smaller ones to accommodate smaller portions of food.
Television and poster adverts will air from Saturday.
Cathy Moulton, care advisor at Diabetes UK, said: "This new report paints a gloomy picture of the future state of the UK\'s health.
"Type 2 diabetes accounts for 90% of all cases of diabetes and obesity is one of its leading causes.
"If left undiagnosed or not controlled well, the condition can lead to heart disease, stroke, kidney failure, blindness and amputation."
For more information, please visit
http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2010/feb/16/adult-obesity-rises
